🔗 Share this article

A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has has something to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."