A mere eight weeks in the past that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager admonished him for not reading a pass in behind. During that period, with the team failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether his displays were an indicator or a cause for the team's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, however, the sideline response was entirely decidedly more positive. After Rogers curled home his brace-sealing goal to restore his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician ripped off his coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club marched on to ten wins in a row , after failing to win their opening six matches, now sit just three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Title Contenders?
It remains an exceptionally difficult proposition to resolve. Past precedent, a general sense of the club, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been entirely convincing in many games, despite the fact the positive results have accumulated.
Per the data, in only two games has the side posted an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a team who have put together ten consecutive victories, Villa appear weirdly vulnerable – but currently the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy appears to be to exchange chances with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to rescue them with some clinical strikes. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired in London, and again when facing United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a brilliant finish, arced just inside the goal frame from a wide position. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opponents registered more efforts and more direct attempts. They have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge Villa have to face as the season progresses. The forward, surely, cannot maintain drilling his shots into the top corner indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is another reality in which, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The winger could transform into the performer he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo will eventually come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable backline.
This could contain the potential for a sustained push, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely earlier this season, no one envisioned the young forward as the year closed would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial Three Lions star.
The current run must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When Rogers faced the Villa faithful after the match conducting the cheers, he seemed to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These runs of form do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
